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STRATEGIC STIMULUS

With unemployment very low at 4.7%, substantial fiscal stimulus will simply drive up wages and inflation, forcing the Fed to increase rates prematurely. Thus, Trump and Congress should focus on expanding the economy’s productive capacity, not increasing...

OILY OUTCOME

Last week the number of oil rigs operating in the US hit 566, up 15 from the prior week and an additional 29 from the week before that. The increase of 29 rigs was the largest increase in nearly four years. The oil-rig count is now at its highest level since 11/15. At...

MARKET RECAP AND WHERE WE’RE HEADED

Yesterday the 10 yr note finally made a nice move lower taking MBS prices up 33 bps and the yield on the 10 down 5 bps to 2.45% after another attempt to push the yield over 2.50% on Wednesday failed. On Wednesday, economic reports, particularly the Jan CPI increased...

DYNAMITE DOMICILES

Last month existing home sales absolutely sizzled, hitting a rate of 5.69 million/year, the best level since 2/07. Remarkably, this strength came despite inventory of only 1.69 million units. That’s just 3.6 months of supply at the current sales pace, the lowest...